The expanded 48-team World Cup format is drawing scrutiny following group stage matches that appear to lack the intense competitive edge seen in previous tournaments. The new structure, which sees 32 teams progress from the group stage – including eight of the twelve third-placed teams – is creating scenarios where a draw can be a mutually beneficial outcome for both sides, potentially diminishing the excitement of the final round of fixtures.
A prime example unfolded on Thursday as Australia faced Paraguay in Group D. Both teams entered the match on three points, knowing that a draw would likely be enough to secure passage to the knockout stages for both. The match concluded in a 0-0 stalemate, with Australia confirmed as progressing in second place. While Paraguay's qualification is not yet mathematically certain, a single point is widely expected to be sufficient for them to claim one of the coveted third-placed spots, barring a highly improbable combination of results in other groups.
This outcome highlights a significant shift from the 2022 World Cup format, where only the top two teams from each group advanced, ensuring every final group game carried immense stakes. Under the current system, a team like South Korea, despite a recent 1-0 defeat to South Africa, is still highly likely to advance as a best third-placed team, a situation that would have seen them eliminated under the previous rules.
The issue stems from the challenge FIFA faced in creating a symmetrical knockout stage with 48 teams. Initial proposals for 16 groups of three teams were dismissed due to concerns about collusion, reminiscent of the 1982 World Cup where West Germany's 1-0 win over Austria controversially sent both teams through at Algeria's expense. FIFA subsequently mandated simultaneous final group games, but the current 12 groups of four with third-placed qualifiers inadvertently reintroduces a similar dynamic, albeit on a broader scale.
Another match presenting a similar scenario is the upcoming fixture between Austria and Algeria in Group J. Both teams currently sit on three points, and a draw would almost certainly see both progress to the last 32. The anticipation is that this game could also see a cautious approach from both sides, prioritising a point over a win to secure their place in the next round. This potential for pre-determined outcomes raises questions about the integrity and excitement of the group stage's conclusion.