A decade after the seismic Brexit vote, a stark contrast has emerged in how the UK's departure from the European Union is viewed on either side of the Channel. While London continues to grapple with the far-reaching implications of its exit, Brussels has largely moved on, treating Brexit as a historic chapter closed.
The initial aftermath of the 2016 referendum was marked by shock and uncertainty in Brussels, with reports from the time describing a feverish atmosphere. However, the EU quickly regained composure, establishing clear red lines for negotiations: no talks without Article 50 being triggered, no 'cherry-picking' of benefits, and an insistence on the indivisibility of the four freedoms – goods, services, capital, and people. This unified approach, adopted by the remaining 27 member states, proved to be a steadfast framework throughout the subsequent years of negotiations.
Contrary to fears of a 'domino effect' of withdrawals following the UK's decision, no other EU country has pursued exit proceedings. Instead, the bloc has navigated significant global challenges, including a pandemic, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and energy price shocks. During this period, the EU has embarked on deeper integration in areas such as common borrowing and joint procurement of weapons, gas, and vaccines – initiatives that observers suggest would have been considerably more difficult with the UK at the negotiating table.
For the EU, the current arrangement, particularly the Trade and Cooperation Agreement, is largely seen as advantageous. Jonathan Faull, former head of the European Commission’s UK taskforce, noted that the deal is 'very much to the EU's advantage' in economic terms and that there is 'no great desire to reset relations with the UK'. This sentiment underscores a perception that the status quo suits the EU, which has adapted to operating without its former member.
Meanwhile, the UK's relationship with the EU remains a contentious issue. A recent poll highlighted that 60% of 18-28 year olds would support rejoining the EU, while figures like Andy Burnham have spoken of a 'long-term case' for rejoining, albeit not immediately. Former European Council President Charles Michel has indicated that the EU would react with 'a positive spirit' if the UK were to ever request re-entry, stressing that such a decision rests entirely with UK domestic politics.