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AI misuse and nuclear conflict could cause human extinction by 2100

A new global risk assessment by The Lancet Commission identifies 17 major threats to human health, with malicious AI use and nuclear conflict topping the list as potential causes of human extinction by 2100.

  • Malicious use of AI and nuclear conflict are identified as the top threats with extinction potential by 2100.
  • The assessment lists 17 major threats to human health over the next 75 years, including climate crisis and childhood malnutrition.
  • Experts state that a "realistic route to act" exists for each identified threat.

Humans could face extinction by the year 2100 due to the malicious use of artificial intelligence (AI) or nuclear conflict, according to a new global risk assessment. These two risks head a list of 17 major threats to human health over the next 75 years, identified by The Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health.

The commission's report indicates that while the likelihood of malicious AI use, including bioweapons, and nuclear conflict remains low, they have the potential to end humanity. Nuclear conflict could cause famine by blocking sunlight, while AI-created biological weapons pose another extinction risk.

Other significant threats identified include cuts to aid spending by wealthy countries, the climate crisis, and childhood malnutrition. The experts emphasised that all threats interact and must be addressed collectively, but stressed that there is a "realistic route to act" on each.

The commission, comprising 35 experts, modelled the potential loss of healthy years due to sickness, disability, or early deaths for each threat. Their findings are scheduled to be shared on Sunday at the World Health Summit in Berlin, Germany, and the assessment will be updated annually.

Why this matters: Decisions made by leaders today are expected to shape the health and wellbeing of the next generation, according to Prof Christopher Murray, commission co-chair.

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