Four years after the introduction of ChatGPT, the economic impact of artificial intelligence (AI) appears to be similar to the 1990s dotcom era. There has been a notable stock market boom and substantial investment in infrastructure, such as datacentres, driven by expectations of future demand that has not yet materialised.
Despite recent announcements of job losses at companies including NAB, Qantas, Canva, and Atlassian, some of which were attributed to AI, evidence suggests a widespread 'job apocalypse' is not occurring. NAB has denied AI played a role in its redundancies, stating that these are consistent with its past business practices. Qantas reportedly invoked AI, but its decision to outsource 850 jobs to India aligns with its long-standing offshoring strategy.
However, the business models of some firms, such as Canva, which offers easily usable graphics design software, may be more vulnerable to AI. Atlassian's software, focused on project management, may be harder for AI to replicate. Even leading AI firms like OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, and Alphabet could face challenges from cheaper 'open-weight' models, potentially turning large language models (LLMs) into essential but unprofitable services. This could lead to a significant impact on the stock market rather than the jobs market.