Westminster is experiencing a significant and rapid shift in political power, with Andy Burnham, the newly elected MP for Makerfield, emerging as the overwhelming favourite to succeed Sir Keir Starmer as Labour leader and potentially the next Prime Minister. This acceleration follows Sir Keir's announcement of a timetable for his departure and a crucial endorsement from Wes Streeting, previously considered a major rival, who has now publicly backed the former Greater Manchester Mayor.
The events of Monday, which saw Sir Keir and his wife display emotion during his resignation announcement, sharply contrasted with images of Mr. Burnham celebrating his by-election victory alongside hundreds of Labour MPs. This stark visual representation underscores the brutal and swift transfer of power currently underway. Notably, Chancellor Rachel Reeves was observed at Mr. Burnham's event, having not been seen earlier at Downing Street when staff applauded Sir Keir, highlighting the scramble among senior figures to align with the potential new leader.
While some senior Labour figures hope to retain key government positions, advocating for Ms Reeves to remain at the Treasury due to her perceived stability with financial markets, others suggest her close association with Sir Keir's administration makes her retention unlikely. Speculation has also surfaced about Mr. Streeting potentially taking on the Chancellor role, although he has denied being offered the position by Mr. Burnham.
Despite the current momentum, significant questions are now being raised for Mr. Burnham and the Labour Party. Concerns are mounting within the party about the optics of a candidate who was not even a parliamentary candidate at the last general election, and only became an MP last week, potentially becoming Prime Minister within a month. Critics also point to his two previous unsuccessful bids for the Labour leadership, against Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn, both of whom subsequently lost general elections.
Mr. Burnham's current appeal is largely attributed to his image as a 'winner', particularly following his victory against Reform UK in Makerfield, a region where Reform performed strongly in recent English local elections. However, his popularity beyond Greater Manchester remains largely untested. Some within the party express unease, suggesting that many Labour MPs are backing a leader whose detailed policy prospectus for government is not yet fully understood. While Mr. Burnham outlined some broad ideas during his by-election campaign, focusing on local issues, the lack of specific detail on national challenges such as economic growth, the cost of living, public services, housing, and opportunities for the next generation is causing jitters among some Labour MPs.
This perceived lack of detail and the potentially narrow window for Mr. Burnham to articulate his vision are prompting discussions about potential alternative leadership candidates, with some Labour MPs reportedly considering encouraging Darren Jones, the Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister, to contest the leadership. While Mr. Jones’s friends suggest he is unlikely to stand, he has not yet ruled out the possibility. The next critical development will be when Mr. Burnham chooses to formally set out his policy stall for the country.