The town of El Chaltén in Argentina's Santa Cruz province is facing a potential glacial lake outburst flood (Glof) from Laguna Torre, according to geologist Daniela Schmidt from the University of Buenos Aires. Schmidt's studies indicate that if the northern slope of Cerro Solo were to collapse into Laguna Torre, a significant volume of water could reach El Chaltén, 5 miles (8km) away, in as little as 20 minutes.
This 'worst-case flood scenario' could see discharge reaching 1,769 cubic metres a second, potentially inundating the town's only access bridge and other critical infrastructure. The risk to El Chaltén has been known for years, but recent findings and the Nepal flash floods on 26 August have brought planning for such an event into sharp focus.
The Torre glacier has experienced substantial changes, losing 4 sq km of surface area and thinning by 60-70 metres between 1952 and 2023. This glacial retreat is causing shifts in the surrounding slopes, with the volume of displaced material increasing and movement speed doubling between 2002 and 2023.
New data has also revealed a second body of water within Laguna Torre, now exceeding 220 metres in depth, significantly deeper than previous estimates of approximately 80 metres. Authorities from Los Glaciares national park and the municipality of El Chaltén are working with scientific institutions to develop the country’s first Glof early-warning system and draft evacuation protocols.
The municipality has already ordered dredging of the river channel and clearing of the riverbed beneath the bridge. Discussions are also underway for a contingency plan, which includes considering potential relocation.