Australia is bracing itself for a potentially devastating El Niño event, with the country's Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) declaring the onset of this climate phenomenon. As experts warn that climate change will amplify its effects, Australians are preparing for hotter and drier conditions, extreme heatwaves, and severe bushfires – particularly in regions already vulnerable to these events.
The BoM has issued a stark warning that existing climate change could significantly exacerbate the impacts of this El Niño on Australia. While forecasts indicate the potential for a strong or very strong El Niño, the bureau noted that the magnitude of the event does not always directly correlate with the severity of its impacts on Australia's climate.
Historically, El Niño events have coincided with reduced winter and spring rainfall, especially across Australia's eastern half, alongside higher daytime temperatures in the south and an increased risk of frost due to clearer skies. However, Felicity Gamble, the bureau's technical lead for extended prediction, cautioned that in a warming climate, historical patterns may not be reliable predictors of future impacts – "We see this event emerge in a world that is 1.5C hotter, and we are likely to see unprecedented temperatures in our oceans."
El Niño events are globally associated with extreme weather, and for Australia, they specifically raise concerns about the potential for widespread bushfires and severe coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Japan Meteorological Agency had already declared an El Niño, though their declaration methods and thresholds differ slightly from Australia's.
Climate experts have consistently warned that global heating is supercharging the weather extremes linked to El Niño, leading to even hotter temperatures, fiercer droughts, and more severe flooding. The Climate Council, an independent organisation, described the combination of El Niño and greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels as a "dangerous double act" for Australia.
Amanda McKenzie, the council's chief executive, highlighted the potential "double whammy of climate pollution and El Niño" to significantly impact many Australians – from farmers dealing with drought to those living on the urban bushland fringe facing increased fire risks. As the UK watches, it is worth noting that British trade and travel links with Australia could be affected by this extreme weather event.