Australia's housing crisis has reached boiling point, fuelling a perfect storm of 'stagflation' – a toxic mix of stagnant growth and high inflation – which is increasingly politicised. As consumer confidence plummets to record lows, the once-moderate party One Nation has surged ahead in popularity, capitalising on widespread discontent among Australians struggling with the crippling costs of living.
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute's latest consumer sentiment survey paints a dire picture: deep pessimism pervades every corner of Australian society. Interest rate hikes have pushed prospective buyers and existing mortgage holders to the brink, while economists warn that drastic immigration cuts could exacerbate an already precarious labour market. Yet it is precisely this economic strain that One Nation leader Pauline Hanson has so adeptly exploited in her campaign for power.
By explicitly linking housing affordability to immigration policy – a tried-and-tested tactic that resonates with those grappling with the realities of Australia's undersupplied, investor-dominated property market – Hanson's party is able to sidestep the complexities of the issue. While researchers like Jordan McSwiney argue that this 'bait and switch' approach risks oversimplifying the problem, One Nation has proven adept at adapting its message to resonate with a public crying out for solutions.
The Coalition's recent decision to link migration rates directly to housing supply – a move that Hanson has seized upon as proof of her party's prescience – has further mainstreamed One Nation's position. By bypassing traditional media and flooding social media platforms with its message, the party is able to present itself as the champion of everyday Australians.
But economists such as AMP chief economist Shane Oliver caution policymakers against knee-jerk reactions to immigration levels. While high migration can put pressure on housing markets in the short term, it also provides a vital injection of skilled labour and tax revenue – essential for an economy facing the challenges of an ageing population.
As One Nation's popularity continues to soar, the challenge facing mainstream parties is clear: how do they address the complex economic realities driving this populist surge, without getting drawn into simplistic narratives that offer easy answers but may ultimately exacerbate the problems at hand?