Australia has recorded a significant drop in daily smoking rates, reaching a historic low of 5.6% in 2025 among individuals aged 14 and over. This figure marks a substantial reduction from 8.3% reported in 2022-23, according to the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare’s (AIHW) National Drug Strategy Household Survey. The achievement places Australia well ahead of its National Tobacco Strategy 2023–2030 target of less than 10% daily smoking prevalence by 2025, with a new goal set at 5% or less by 2030.
The comprehensive survey, which gathered data from over 17,500 participants between June and December 2025, also revealed that more than two-thirds of Australians aged 14 and above have never smoked, representing another historic high. This success is attributed by organisations like Cancer Council Australia to sustained public health campaigns, plain packaging legislation, advertising restrictions, and taxation policies aimed at reducing tobacco consumption.
However, the positive trend in smoking cessation is accompanied by a concerning rise in the use of illicit tobacco. The AIHW data shows that 34% of those who currently smoke reported recently using illicit tobacco, a significant increase from 16.7% in 2022-23. A quarter of these smokers (22%) admitted to purchasing branded illicit tobacco, which bypasses plain packaging and graphic health warnings, in the three months prior to the survey. A further one in six reported smoking unbranded products, such as loose tobacco or cigarettes sold in plastic bags.
The majority of those purchasing branded illicit tobacco (57%) reported buying it from tobacconists. This emerging challenge has sparked debate among health experts and policymakers. While some argue that high legal tobacco prices are driving consumers to the illicit market, prompting calls for excise cuts, public health experts strongly refute this. Professor Becky Freeman, a tobacco control expert at the University of Sydney, argues that reducing excise would be ineffective, as illicit products could simply become even cheaper, offering no incentive for users to switch to more expensive legal alternatives.
Instead, experts like Professor Freeman and the Public Health Association of Australia President, Professor Caroline Miller, advocate for a robust enforcement and regulatory response. They suggest increased funding for enforcement agencies and changes to tobacco sales regulations, including stronger licensing schemes and a reduction in the number of retailers permitted to sell tobacco. The AIHW also noted an overall decline in nicotine use, which fell to 15.2% in 2025 from 17.4% in 2022-23, indicating a broader shift away from nicotine products.