The battle for the influential mayoral position in Greater Manchester has officially begun, with a highly anticipated election scheduled for 30 July. Andy Burnham's successful bid to become Member of Parliament for Makerfield has left a significant void, but also presents an opportunity for other parties to capitalise on Labour's diminished presence. The contest is expected to be closely watched by all major parties, with the outcome set to serve as a barometer of public sentiment across the North West.
Labour is acutely aware of the importance of retaining control of the mayoralty and is widely tipped to select Bev Craig, the current leader of Manchester City Council, as its candidate. A seasoned politician with long-standing ties to Burnham, Craig's endorsement by her predecessor will likely boost her campaign among Labour supporters. With an estimated 420,000 individuals backing Burnham in his last mayoral election, party strategists are confident that Craig can tap into this reservoir of support.
However, parties outside Labour are optimistic about their chances. The Green Party has already begun its campaign, with Trafford Councillor Geraldine Coggins confirmed as its candidate. Insiders suggest the Greens are committing significant resources to the contest, convinced that without Burnham's personal appeal, Labour's traditional candidates may struggle to connect with voters. They argue that Burnham's unique brand significantly outweighed that of the Labour Party in his re-election campaign.
Reform UK is also eyeing this election as a prime opportunity for growth. After recent by-election disappointments – including its performance in Makerfield, where it fell short of leader Nigel Farage's predictions – Reform is under pressure to secure a victory in Greater Manchester and demonstrate its increasing influence. Having secured second place in three consecutive by-elections, the party hopes this election will mark a turning point.
The supplementary vote (SV) system will be used for the election, a method employed until 2022 that allows voters to select a first and second preference. If no candidate secures over 50% of initial votes, second preferences from eliminated candidates are redistributed between the top two contenders. Green officials believe this system could work in their favour, enabling voters to choose them as a first preference and Labour as a second – although there is a risk of not making the top two if Labour dominates first preferences.
The outcome of this contest will be closely scrutinised for its implications beyond Greater Manchester's borders. The shift in public sentiment across the North West will provide valuable insights into the broader political landscape, with significant consequences for parties vying for power.