Shares in Intermediate Capital Group (ICG) edged lower on Thursday after analysts at Berenberg lowered their price target on the alternative asset manager, citing a reassessment of its valuation. The FTSE 250-listed stock fell by 1.2% in early trading to 1,560p, underperforming the wider index which was broadly flat at 20,450 points.
Berenberg's revised target, reduced from 1,850p to 1,720p, reflects a more cautious stance on the company's near-term earnings prospects and market positioning. The bank maintained its 'hold' rating on the stock, suggesting limited upside potential from current levels. ICG, which specialises in private debt and credit investments, has faced headwinds from rising interest rates and tighter credit conditions in recent months.
The move comes amid a wider reassessment of the alternative asset management sector by analysts, who are weighing the impact of a higher-for-longer rate environment on fundraising and deal activity. ICG's shares have fallen roughly 8% year-to-date, underperforming the FTSE 250 which is down around 3% over the same period. Rival firms such as 3i Group and Bridgepoint have also seen analyst downgrades in recent weeks.
For UK investors and pension holders with exposure to mid-cap funds, the Berenberg note adds to a growing chorus of caution around the private credit space. ICG is a significant component of several UK-focused investment trusts and pension portfolios, meaning the stock's performance can ripple through to retirement savings. Analysts at other houses remain split, with some arguing the sell-off has been overdone given ICG's track record of delivering consistent returns.
“The valuation review by Berenberg highlights the delicate balance between ICG's strong historical performance and the current macroeconomic headwinds,” said a London-based analyst who asked not to be named. “Investors should watch for the company's upcoming trading update for clarity on fee income and new commitments.” ICG is due to report its first-quarter results in August, which will be closely watched for signs of whether the slowdown in dealmaking is easing.