The closely-watched election for the Mayor of Greater Manchester is reaching its climax this Thursday, with Labour's Bev Craig firmly in pole position to succeed Andy Burnham. The significance of this contest lies not only in the high-profile stakes but also in its potential impact on regional politics – and perhaps even beyond. With an estimated 2 million voters eligible to participate, the outcome will be a crucial test of Labour's ability to maintain its stronghold on the region.
Despite the national spotlight shifting towards Westminster following Burnham's recent by-election victory in Makerfield, the Greater Manchester mayoral election remains a substantial electoral event. Recent polling suggests Craig, 41, is set to become the region's new leader, with Labour expected to secure the majority of votes. At her manifesto launch, Craig pledged to "build a place that fights for us, that works for us and creates a future for all of us" – an ambitious vision that has resonated with voters.
The challenge from Reform UK, which made significant gains in local council elections across Greater Manchester just months ago, is likely to be less intense than anticipated due to leader Nigel Farage's reported focus on the Clacton by-election. The Green Party, however, remains a force to be reckoned with, having secured recent successes in Manchester, Salford, and Trafford – although a YouGov poll last week placed them third with 17% of the vote.
Professor Rob Ford from the University of Manchester's politics department believes that while Labour's victory appears likely, a key measure of success will be their ability to stem the Green Party's recent gains in Manchester and close the gap on Reform UK in boroughs such as Wigan, Bolton, Bury, and Tameside. Craig's personal story, which has taken her from a council estate in Northern Ireland to the forefront of Greater Manchester politics, adds a compelling dimension to this contest.
Craig's ascent to Labour leadership began after studying politics and history at the University of Manchester, where she joined the party as a councillor in 2011. Her election as leader of Manchester City Council in 2021 at just 36 marked a significant milestone in her career, cementing her reputation as a rising star within the party.