The bitter legacy of Britain's 2016 EU referendum has come back to haunt Makerfield, a Greater Manchester constituency that epitomised the Leave vote. Eight years on from the historic decision, the deep-seated divisions it sparked remain as raw and divisive as ever, particularly in areas where Brexit was a defining issue. The ongoing by-election campaign serves as a stark reminder of the enduring impact of this seismic event, which continues to shape local politics and voter allegiances.
Makerfield's strong Leave vote – 63.8% – has left the Labour Party facing a daunting challenge in its efforts to reclaim trust and support among voters who once held them dear. Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham's high-profile campaigning for the Labour candidate underscores the party's recognition of this reality, as well as its determination to understand and address the concerns of those who feel overlooked by mainstream politics.
The by-election is a critical test for Labour's evolving Brexit strategy, which has largely moved on from advocating for re-entry into the EU. While local campaigners are focusing on pressing issues like living costs, public services, and economic development, the lingering sentiment among some voters regarding the UK's departure remains a potent factor in how they view parties and their candidates.
For the Conservatives, too, the by-election presents an opportunity to consolidate support among those who prioritised Brexit. Their challenge lies in demonstrating tangible benefits from leaving the EU at a local level, while also navigating broader national economic pressures. The Liberal Democrats and other parties are vying for votes, each attempting to carve out their own niche amidst these complex political currents.
The outcome will be intensely scrutinised by analysts across the spectrum, offering valuable insights into Labour's efforts to reconnect with working-class Leave voters and whether the Conservatives can maintain their appeal in areas that swung towards them in 2019. The result may also indicate the extent to which Brexit remains a defining issue for voters or if other concerns have now taken precedence.
Source: Electoral Commission, House of Commons Library