A decade on from the seismic decision to leave the EU, it has been a remarkable reversal of fortunes for the bloc. Instead of triggering a cascade of departures, the UK's departure has had an unexpected effect – strengthening the EU and fuelling renewed interest in membership.
When the results emerged on 23 June 2016, leaders such as Nigel Farage predicted that the EU would be dismantled, with other nations soon to follow. France's Marine Le Pen and Italy's Matteo Salvini even called for similar referendums in their own countries. Bulgaria's then-prime minister, Boyko Borissov, went so far as to suggest that only a handful of nations would remain if a 'domino effect' took hold.
However, this forecast proved wildly inaccurate. Michael Roth, Germany's former Europe minister, believes the Brexit experience has fundamentally altered the EU's perspective: "Leaving the club is no longer seen as a solution. It's seen as a warning." He emphasised that the costly and complex nature of the Brexit process has significantly diminished any appetite for similar moves across the continent.
Contrary to expectations, the EU is now experiencing a surge in interest in membership. This renewed impetus is partly attributed to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and recent geopolitical uncertainties. Detailed membership talks have commenced this month with Moldova and Ukraine, while the prospects for Western Balkan countries joining the bloc appear more promising than at any point in the last decade.
Iceland is reportedly planning a referendum on resuming EU accession talks, and support for membership is growing in Norway, albeit remaining a minority view there. Heather Grabbe, a former adviser to the European Commission, notes that the UK is now one of many countries seeking a closer relationship with the EU – indicating a shift in the bloc's priorities as it addresses global challenges.
Charles Michel, who served as President of the European Council from 2019 to 2024, acknowledged a lingering sadness over the British departure but concluded that "Brexit made decisions easier… no doubt." He suggested that the UK's exit facilitated greater EU engagement in defence and security policy – a development he considered crucial in preparation for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. For instance, the European Peace Facility, established in March 2021 to fund military equipment and operations, has seen its value increase from its initial €5 billion to €17 billion (approximately £15 billion), supplemented by significant additional funding to rearm the continent and support Ukraine.
While the EU and UK demonstrated unity in their response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Michel expressed regret over the loss of British influence in economic policy and technology regulation – particularly concerning areas like Artificial Intelligence. Even some Eurosceptic figures within the European Parliament, such as Nicola Procaccini, co-leader of the European Conservatives and Reformists, convey a sense of missing the UK's presence, while respecting the democratic choice made by the British people.