The decade-long aftermath of the 2016 referendum on Britain's EU membership is set to be scrutinised in unprecedented detail through a forthcoming collection of essays. 'The Brexit Effect, 2016-2026', edited by Sir Anthony Seldon and featuring contributions from 43 notable authors, promises a comprehensive analysis of the causes and consequences of this pivotal period in British history.
However, critics are already raising concerns that the book's examination falls short in one crucial area: its failure to engage meaningfully with English nationalism. Despite Brexit's strong support in non-metropolitan England, references to 'English nationalism' are sparse throughout the 600-page tome, limited to a single passing mention in media coverage during the 2016 campaign. This perceived omission has sparked debate among experts and policymakers alike, who argue that it hinders our understanding of both recent history and Britain's immediate future.
Economic analysis from Stanford University cited within the collection paints a damning picture: by 2025, the UK's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) had reportedly been reduced by 6% to 8% compared to what it would have been within the EU. Investment dropped by between 12% and 18%, while employment and productivity levels saw reductions of 3% to 4%. These findings directly challenge the initial promises made by Leave campaigners, suggesting that Brexit has instead resulted in substantial economic costs.
The concept of 'taking back control' – a central tenet of the Leave campaign – is also explored at length within the collection. Jurist and historian Jonathan Sumption argues that this notion is inherently flawed, as the UK's ability to exercise control over its own destiny remains limited outside the EU. He highlights the continued influence of EU decisions on British affairs, despite the country's lack of input in these matters. Furthermore, Madeleine Sumption's essay reveals that immigration levels actually rose to record highs after Brexit, contradicting a core promise made by Leave campaigners.
The book's perceived reluctance to address English nationalist impulses and the ongoing influence of figures like Nigel Farage – despite his role being acknowledged by disappointed Leave voters – raises questions about its completeness. While 'The Brexit Effect' offers a wealth of perspectives from the established political and intellectual classes, some readers may feel that a crucial piece of the Brexit narrative remains unexplored.