The seismic impact of the 2016 EU referendum continues to reverberate across Scotland's politics landscape, as the country grapples with its own future within or outside the UK. Ten years on from that fateful day, when Scotland decisively rejected Brexit by a margin of 62% to 38%, it has become clear that the vote's aftershocks have been nothing short of profound.
Kezia Dugdale, who was Scottish Labour leader at the time, recalls feeling 'utterly devastated' by the Leave result, which she believes gave many Scots a renewed sense of purpose and conviction in their desire for independence. The former leader points out that unlike England, Scotland's voters were overwhelmingly Remainer, and that this divergence from the UK Government's pursuit of a hard Brexit helped to sustain support for independence among those who might otherwise have wavered.
Ruth Davidson, the then Scottish Conservative leader and a prominent Remainer, also expressed shock at the referendum outcome. In a telling anecdote, she recalls Nicola Sturgeon's attempts to persuade her and Dugdale to jointly advocate for a second independence vote – a proposition Davidson firmly rejected. The First Minister herself has spoken candidly about feeling 'distraught and enraged' by the prospect of Brexit and what it said about Scotland's powerlessness within the UK.
Despite initial predictions that Brexit would spark an unstoppable 'tidal wave' of support for independence, its impact was initially more nuanced. Over the past decade, other significant crises – including the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine – have influenced voter priorities and kept independence support below the 60% threshold.
However, during Boris Johnson's premiership, the political landscape shifted once again. As Nicola Sturgeon's leadership during the Covid crisis stood in stark contrast to Johnson's more chaotic approach, support for Scottish independence surged, reaching 59% by October 2020 in some polls. This fluctuating impact of various factors on the independence debate underscores the enduring significance of Brexit's legacy.
Today, with support for independence hovering around 50%, it is clear that the EU referendum has left an indelible mark on Scotland's politics and its relationship with the rest of the UK. The seismic shift in voter attitudes towards independence is a testament to the profound impact of one momentous decision – and serves as a poignant reminder that the Brexit debate is far from over.