As Andy Burnham settles into 10 Downing Street, he inherits a Labour Party battered by erosion of support from its traditional strongholds. The party's landslide victory in the 2024 general election masked a stark decline in Keir Starmer's popularity and strained relationships with unions that have long been the bedrock of Labour's support.
Guardian data analysis highlights a precipitous drop in union donations, which began to dwindle under Neil Kinnock and Tony Blair but accelerated during Starmer's leadership. By 2025, union contributions had reached historic lows, underscoring the depth of Labour's disconnection from its traditional allies.
Starmer's difficulties with unions were evident from early on in his tenure. In 2022, he sacked frontbencher Sam Tarry for participating in rail strike interviews, sparking a confrontation that escalated over bin strikes in Birmingham and culminated in Unite suspending Deputy Labour leader Angela Rayner's membership.
Despite the Starmer government passing an employment rights bill hailed by unions as a "generational shift" for workers' rights, perceived distrust persisted. Net-zero policies also sparked tension, with unions representing tens of thousands of energy workers criticising the government's stance. Recent polling reveals a dramatic 20-point drop in union backing for Labour since the 2024 general election, with support for Labour and Reform UK tied at 28% among trade union members.
Andy Burnham now faces the daunting task of rebuilding these relationships. Although his past engagement with unions has been inconsistent – he refused union funds during his 2015 leadership bid – his recent campaign has demonstrated a deliberate effort to reconnect. He met with union leaders and, in his inaugural speech, advocated for "greater public control of essential services," a long-held union objective.
A crucial test is already looming as Burnham chooses his team. Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, previously considered a frontrunner, has faced criticism from unions over net-zero policies and his suitability for the role remains uncertain.