Former Chief of Defence Staff Admiral Sir Tony Radakin has fired a stark warning shot at potential future Prime Minister Andy Burnham, asserting that any defence investment plan must meet what he calls the "Moscow test" to effectively counter Russian threats. The warning comes as the UK's defence spending is under scrutiny, with the government set to publish its long-awaited Defence Investment Plan (DIP) this week.
Speaking on the BBC's Sunday With Laura Kuenssberg programme, Sir Tony emphasised that the world has become a more perilous place, necessitating a stronger UK in the 2030s. He indicated that if the government's DIP proves inadequate, then the next Prime Minister would be compelled to secure additional funding before the next general election. This comes amid reports that new Defence Secretary Dan Jarvis has managed to secure approximately £1 billion more than his predecessor John Healey following intense negotiations with the Treasury.
The former military chief explained that the "Moscow test" assesses how the UK is perceived by Russia, questioning whether it appears as a robust member of the NATO alliance, a strong nuclear power, and a reliable ally of the United States. Sir Tony warned that failure to meet these commitments risks harming relationships with NATO allies, particularly the US, and leaves the UK vulnerable. The UK currently ranks second from the bottom in a NATO league table assessing member states' capability requirements, a position Sir Tony described as "unprecedented" and "unusual."
The long-delayed DIP is expected to outline major capital programmes for the Ministry of Defence (MoD) over the next decade. John Healey resigned earlier this month after failing to secure more than £13.5 billion to address an estimated £18 billion funding gap for these programmes. Concerns have reportedly been raised within the MoD that Mr Burnham might revisit any spending agreement made in the final days of Prime Minister Keir Starmer's tenure, despite Mr Starmer's efforts to cement his legacy on defence.
Allies of Mr Burnham have dismissed these concerns as unfounded, expressing a preference for the funding dispute to be resolved and the DIP published promptly. However, they also indicated that Mr Burnham reserves the right to re-evaluate the plan if necessary. Prime Minister Starmer is scheduled to meet NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on Monday and has pledged to publish the DIP before the NATO summit in Turkey on 7th July, which is expected to be one of his final international engagements. Mr Burnham could potentially assume leadership of the party and the country by 17th July if there is no contest.
NATO has set a long-term aspiration for allies to allocate 3.5% of their GDP to defence by 2035. Much of the UK's total defence funding is dedicated to its nuclear deterrent, which is projected to account for around £19 billion of the estimated £36 billion overall defence budget in 2025.