The seismic result in Makerfield has left Labour reeling as Andy Burnham's resounding victory casts a spotlight on Keir Starmer's leadership. With a landslide win of 54% and a majority of 9,231 votes, Mr Burnham's triumph has sparked a chorus of calls for him to succeed Mr Starmer at the helm of the party. Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy described the outcome as 'astonishing', while Labour MP Louise Haigh warned that the local election results pose an 'existential crisis' for the party.
The by-election, seen as a crucial test case for Labour's ability to counter Reform UK's appeal in traditionally Labour-leaning areas, has delivered a devastating blow to Mr Starmer's leadership. Reform UK secured over half the vote in local elections within the constituency, only to be eclipsed by Mr Burnham's commanding performance. The result highlights the party's struggle to adapt to changing voter sentiments and the need for a fresh approach to reconnect with core supporters.
Mr Burnham's victory is particularly significant as Makerfield was one of the seven closest results where Reform finished second to Labour in the 2024 General Election. His vote share comfortably surpassed the combined votes for Reform UK and Restore Britain, undermining Nigel Farage's argument that a united hard right could secure the seat in a general election.
Attention now shifts to Westminster, where speculation is rife regarding the timeline for a potential leadership challenge. Allies of Mr Burnham have indicated a preference for an 'orderly transition of power' in the coming days, rather than immediate ministerial resignations over the weekend. They suggest that Mr Burnham commands the support of more than the 81 Members of Parliament required to trigger a formal leadership contest, where Mr Starmer would automatically have the right to stand.
While polling data suggests that Labour's standing could improve by approximately six percentage points with Mr Burnham as Prime Minister, even his supporters acknowledge that he would confront similar policy challenges that have proven difficult for Mr Starmer. Joe Twyman, Director of Deltapoll, noted the immediate 'bounce in the polls' Mr Burnham might experience but questioned whether voters would perceive a long-term, noticeable improvement under his leadership.