Andy Burnham's decisive win in the Makerfield by-election has been lauded as a 'remarkable personal success' by leading election analyst Sir John Curtice. The Greater Manchester Mayor not only maintained the 45% share of the vote Labour secured in the constituency in 2024, but significantly increased it by 10 percentage points. This outcome stands in stark contrast to recent by-election results where Labour's vote has seen substantial declines, such as a 14-point drop in Runcorn and a 25-point collapse in Gorton & Denton.
The victory is particularly noteworthy given that Labour was reportedly 20 points behind Reform UK in the Makerfield local elections just two months prior. Furthermore, national polls indicate Labour's support has been hovering around 19% since last autumn, with no evidence of a recent surge in popularity to explain the Makerfield turnaround. Indeed, Labour's vote fell by 19 points in Aberdeen South and 18 points in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry in other by-elections held on the same day.
Sir John Curtice highlighted two key factors underpinning Burnham's success. Firstly, he managed to re-engage a significant proportion of those who voted Labour in 2024, with polls suggesting four in five of these voters backed Burnham. This contrasts sharply with national figures indicating only just over half of 2024 Labour voters are currently inclined to support the party again. Secondly, Burnham appears to have benefited from a significant squeeze on the Conservative, Liberal Democrat, and Green parties, which collectively secured just 3% of the vote – a 19-point decrease from 2024.
The Liberal Democrats recorded their worst ever by-election performance with 0.4% of the vote, while the Conservatives' 2.2% was only marginally better than their all-time low of 1.9% in Gorton and Denton. This collapse is likely attributable to a mix of tactical voting against Reform UK, a desire to influence the national political landscape, and the personal appeal of Andy Burnham and his record as Mayor. Makerfield, with two-thirds of its voters backing Leave in the 2016 referendum, was considered prime territory for Reform UK, making their modest three-point increase on 2024 a significant disappointment for Nigel Farage.
Adding to the complexity, the by-election also saw the emergence of Restore Britain, a new party founded by former Reform UK MP Rupert Lowe, advocating an even tougher stance on migration. This party secured 7% of the vote, retaining its deposit, and potentially drawing support that might otherwise have gone to Reform UK. The impact of Restore Britain, currently polling at 3% nationally, represents a new challenge for Reform UK in their pursuit of pro-Brexit, socially conservative voters.
Meanwhile, the Conservative vote saw a contrasting fortunes elsewhere. In Aberdeen South, the party managed to increase its vote share by turning the by-election into a referendum on the net zero policies of both the UK and Scottish governments, in a city grappling with the decline of the oil industry.