Andy Burnham's resounding by-election victory in Makerfield has sent shockwaves through Westminster, marking a significant turning point in the battle for control of northern England. The Labour stalwart's return to Parliament after nine years as Mayor of Greater Manchester comes on the back of an impressive 9,231 vote margin over Reform UK's Robert Kenyon, with Labour securing 55% of the vote and Reform UK garnering 35%. The hard-right party Restore Britain secured a mere 7%, while the Liberal Democrats and Green Party saw their support plummet to just one per cent – a stark contrast to the 11% they collectively achieved in Makerfield two years prior.
Analysis by veteran pollster Peter Kellner reveals that Labour's broad appeal played a crucial role in Burnham's success, as both the Liberal Democrats and Green Party conducted subdued campaigns. This strategic decision allowed Labour to absorb votes from across the political spectrum, ensuring Burnham's win against Kenyon. Constituents such as Mal (64), a former social worker, cited concerns over the 'divisive' politics of Reform UK and Restore Britain in the predominantly white British constituency, arguing that their immigration-focused campaigns caused unnecessary problems.
Furthermore, interviews with constituents revealed that Burnham's support base extended to some voters who had previously backed Reform UK. Joseph (50), a heavy goods driver, stated he was 'not a Labour fan' but admired Burnham, viewing him as the best option for the coming years. Ellen (63) expressed a decline in her and her peers' fondness for Nigel Farage, citing discomfort with the local Reform candidate's past comments and a desire to prevent Reform from winning in her constituency.
The by-election also saw a notable increase in voter engagement, with turnout rising to 59% – six percentage points higher than the last general election – and a total of 45,510 votes cast. This heightened participation underscores the significance local residents placed on the outcome. Constituents like Barb expressed hope that the area could heal after what she described as a 'polarising and high-profile time in the spotlight', noting the presence of activists from outside the constituency.
The result suggests a collective effort from diverse political backgrounds to influence the local political landscape, raising questions about the future of regional politics and the prospects for Reform UK and Restore Britain. As Burnham returns to Westminster, his victory will be seen as a major boost to Labour's chances in the north of England, while also posing significant challenges to the opposition parties.