Andy Burnham's trajectory towards becoming the next Prime Minister has been significantly cleared, following an announcement by Darren Jones, a prominent ally of Sir Keir Starmer, that he would not enter a leadership contest. Jones, who had been subject to speculation as a potential challenger, confirmed that he believes Mr Burnham is destined for the top job, stating, "Andy Burnham is going to be the next prime minister."
Despite this apparent clearing of the path, Mr Jones, who serves as the chief secretary to the prime minister, expressed significant reservations regarding the economic direction of a potential Burnham government. He revealed that over 100 Members of Parliament had approached him, either urging him to stand for leadership or voicing anxieties about a perceived lack of focus on economic policy. During a meeting with Mr Burnham, Jones directly advised him to "set out your economic policy," highlighting backbench concerns about the next government potentially moving "too quickly" on investment and borrowing.
Mr Jones acknowledged that there might be "room to borrow a little more" but stressed the increasing expense of securing funds from lenders. He also noted that he had not subjected Mr Burnham to a detailed "pub quiz" on fiscal rules, citing Mr Burnham's previous difficulty in explaining them during a BBC interview. While supportive of strategic investment in areas like new towns, mayoral development corporations, and energy systems, Jones cautioned against "broad-brush borrowing and spending" that might not yield desired outcomes.
The debate over borrowing is further fuelled by Jim O'Neill, a former Treasury minister and an economic adviser to Mr Burnham, who advocates for increased borrowing to fund infrastructure projects. Mr O'Neill stated that there is "a lot more room under the existing fiscal rules to borrow for investment, and the next chancellor should take advantage of that." He suggested making an existing infrastructure body independent to provide clearer data on the growth impact of investments. However, Mr O'Neill also emphasised that any additional borrowing must be balanced with spending restraint in other areas, including wholesale welfare reform.
Adding to the political intrigue, Mr Jones hinted at significant changes within the next Cabinet, specifically regarding the role of Chancellor. He suggested that a successor to the current Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, should have "an important relationship with the Prime Minister" and be instrumental in delivering on the leader's priorities. Reports have widely speculated that Ms Reeves may be offered a less senior Cabinet position. Potential candidates for the Chancellorship reportedly include Wes Streeting and John Healey, while Energy Secretary Ed Miliband is also known to covet the role, though his appointment could potentially unsettle financial markets.
These developments underscore the complex economic challenges and internal political dynamics that would face a future Labour government under Andy Burnham, with significant discussions ongoing about the balance between investment, borrowing, and fiscal responsibility.