China recently conducted a long-range missile test in the Pacific, an exercise Beijing described as 'routine' but which has nevertheless raised significant alarm among leaders and defence experts across the region. The launch marks the second publicly acknowledged long-range missile test by China into the Pacific in under two years, following a similar intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test in September 2024 that also drew widespread criticism.
Countries including the United States and Australia, which have historically maintained considerable influence in the Pacific, have voiced increasing concern over China's expanding presence and its drive to enhance both its conventional military and nuclear capabilities. Regional neighbours, including the Solomon Islands, have expressed dismay over what they perceive as insufficient notice and a lack of detailed information regarding the test. Matthew Wale, the Prime Minister of the Solomon Islands, a nation that has fostered close ties with China, remarked, "China is a good friend of Solomon Islands, but this is not something a friend does."
According to a statement from the Chinese navy, a nuclear submarine launched a "strategic missile carrying a training simulation warhead" on Monday, which "accurately landed in the designated sea area." China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Mao Ning, urged other nations not to "over-interpret" the test, asserting that it was "a routine part of China’s annual military training, in accordance with international law and practice, and is not directed against any specific country or target." Ning also claimed that "relevant countries were notified in advance."
However, analysts suggest the test carries broader strategic implications. Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, indicated that the demonstration was likely designed to "compel the US to treat China as a more equal partner." Zhao added that this "very high-profile test is really lifting the curtain on a potential new era of massive nuclear submarine expansion," suggesting that China's technological advancements could significantly challenge America's military security in the Asia Pacific. Lyle Morris, a senior fellow at the Centre for China Analysis at the Asia Society Policy Institute, interpreted the action as China "sending a pretty clear signal" to the US and Taiwan regarding its resolve.
While China's defence ministry did not confirm the specific missile used, Chinese military expert Song Zhongping told the state-run Global Times that it was likely a JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile. This missile, formally unveiled in September 2025, is believed to have a range exceeding 10,000 kilometres, classifying it as an ICBM. Su Tzu-yun, director at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defence and Security Research, highlighted that the JL-3 would allow Chinese submarines to threaten targets in the central United States without needing to leave waters near China's coast, representing a shift towards a more "coercive nuclear posture."