Closing in on its worst single-day performance since 2014, Close Brothers shares plummeted by nearly nine per cent on Monday morning to a value of 401.70p. The FTSE 250 bank has been dealt a crushing blow by broker RBC's critical downgrade, which warns that it will deliver the lowest value-creation among Europe's top 50 banks over the next three years.
RBC's equity analyst, Benjamin Toms, highlighted the 'increasingly uncertain' and 'protracted' nature of the motor finance scandal, noting its far-reaching potential impact on Close Brothers. This heightened uncertainty is set to have a significant bearing on shareholder returns, with projections suggesting the bank may defer dividend payouts for another year.
The bank's Chief Executive, Mike Morgan, had previously stated in March that restarting dividends would be challenging until there was clarity on the group's capital position, following plans to cut 600 full-time roles as part of a cost-reduction strategy. The conservative dividend policy, driven by the current climate, is expected to result in Close Brothers achieving only two per cent value creation by 2028, based on a metric of growing net worth and dividend payments.
This marks a significant shift for the bank, which had previously outperformed since 2014 with ten per cent value creation, surpassing the average of three per cent. RBC's analysis suggests Close Brothers will trail behind the average for the next three years, projected at 15 per cent.
Just days after Shore Capital issued an upgrade for Close Brothers, assigning a 'buy' rating and lifting its target price to 495p from 490p, RBC's bruising assessment has sent shockwaves through the market. Gary Greenwood, a banking analyst at Shore Capital, had suggested that investors were 'adequately compensated' for risks associated with new developments in the car mis-selling saga.
The motor finance scandal, which involves the use of undisclosed commission agreements between dealers and lenders, continues to pose a significant challenge. The UK's financial watchdog, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), recently suspended parts of its £9bn redress scheme due to multiple legal challenges from both the industry and consumer groups. Close Brothers had previously provisioned £300m for potential payouts, stating it was 'well-positioned'. However, RBC estimates that if the scheme is overturned, the bank's share of additional administrative costs could approach £200m, potentially impacting its CET1 ratio by 230 basis points, a key indicator of financial health.
The FCA has reportedly sent letters to over 100 motor finance firms this month, expressing concerns about their plans for implementing the redress programme. This indicates the regulator's continued scrutiny and the potential for further disruption in the sector.