Colombia stands at a crossroads as it prepares to elect a new president this Sunday. The run-off vote pits far-right challenger Abelardo de la Espriella against left-wing Senator Iván Cepeda in a contest that will shape the country's approach to its long-standing armed conflict. With violence surging to levels not seen since the 2016 peace agreement, Colombians are eager for change – but divided on what that should look like.
The frontrunner de la Espriella has promised to abandon President Gustavo Petro's 'total peace' plan, which aims to negotiate disarmament with all criminal organisations. Instead, he advocates for a return to military confrontation with armed groups. Cepeda, on the other hand, is committed to continuing the 'total peace' strategy – albeit with modifications.
De la Espriella's campaign has gained momentum despite initial polls suggesting Cepeda was favourite to win. The far-right candidate has successfully tapped into two global trends: positioning himself as an outsider and promising swift solutions to violence. He initially vowed to restore state control over territories dominated by criminal groups within 90 days, although he later clarified his aim for the first three months would be to 'capture or kill' 10 major narcoterrorist and organised crime leaders.
Sandra Borda Guzmán, an associate professor of political science at Los Andes University in Bogotá, notes that de la Espriella has leveraged international favour for anti-political figures and Colombia's domestic security situation to fuel his campaign. The outcome will have significant implications for how Colombia addresses its internal conflicts and the future of peace efforts.
As the world watches this pivotal election, the UK must also consider its interests in the region. A shift in Colombia's approach could impact trade and travel links with a country that has made significant strides towards peace since 2016.
Source: Los Andes University, Radio Caracol