The UK Government's handling of climate change risks is under increasing scrutiny, with a cross-government roundtable highlighting the need for more consistent application of scenario-based tools to inform policy decisions. The event, co-hosted by the Government Actuary’s Department and the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, brought together eight government organisations during London Climate Action Week to address the long-term impacts of climate change on critical infrastructure, public services, and national security.
The roundtable reflects growing recognition within Whitehall that climate risks pose significant threats to the UK's economic performance. Participants explored how existing scenario-based tools could be applied more consistently across departments, with a focus on distinguishing between scenarios and forecasts. Actuaries use scenarios to rigorously test decisions against a range of severe yet plausible future conditions, rather than relying on a single predicted outcome.
Experts highlighted the need for policymakers to consider the long-term implications of climate change when making investment choices. The IFoA shared insights from its contribution to HM Treasury’s Green Book Discount Rate review, which examined how highly uncertain decisions might require different appraisal methodologies compared to routine investments. Participants also engaged in discussions on barriers to adopting climate scenarios across government and explored mechanisms to support effective decision-making.
GAD presented a practical case study examining the potential impact of rising temperatures on the prison estate, demonstrating how scenario analysis can inform risk assessment and intervention strategies. The roundtable underscored the collective interest in strengthening the use of climate scenarios, particularly through enhanced governance, improved analytical tools, and increased inter-departmental collaboration.
Matt Gurden, Deputy Government Actuary, noted that the event was a timely reminder of immediate climate challenges, having moved to a hybrid format following a Met Office red heat alert. He emphasised the encouragement gained from seeing various government organisations sharing their experiences and working towards more resilient decision-making through scenario analysis.