The future of the state pension triple lock is a significant topic of discussion among political parties, though it is largely debated in private rather than on public platforms. The mechanism, introduced in 2011, mandates that the state pension increases by the highest of inflation, average earnings growth, or 2.5%.
The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that by 2030, the triple lock will cost the Treasury more than £15bn annually. This figure is approximately three times the original expectation when it was introduced.
Despite the financial implications, there is public support for the triple lock. A YouGov poll found that two-thirds of Britons, and 70% of those over 65, want to see it maintained. Political parties reportedly fear a backlash from pensioners if they propose changes.
The possibility of the state pension rising high enough to attract tax for some recipients next spring is also focusing minds. One suggested approach is to keep the triple lock but tax away the increase for wealthier pensioners.