The climate debate in Australia has taken a contentious turn as politicians make claims that ditching a net zero target would bring down power bills. However, new research from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) reveals that these assertions are wide of the mark. The annual GenCost report, which compares the costs of different electricity generation technologies, forecasts that wholesale prices will increase by 2030, regardless of Australia's net zero stance.
The CSIRO analysis directly challenges the notion that nuclear power is a cheap and viable alternative to other energy sources. Even when benchmarked against South Korea's highly efficient nuclear deployment, the report finds that nuclear electricity generation is currently uncompetitive compared to other methods. This comes amidst an ongoing debate in Australian politics, where the Coalition has scrapped its 2050 net zero target and One Nation rejects climate change science outright.
According to Paul Graham, CSIRO chief energy economist and lead author of the report, abandoning a net zero commitment does not provide a low-cost pathway for electricity. As coal-fired power plants retire, they must be replaced with new generation capacity – whether that's from coal or renewables. The costs are projected to remain similar, making more expensive abatement efforts elsewhere in the economy necessary if greenhouse gas emissions are to be reduced.
The report also breaks down the components of a typical retail electricity bill, showing wholesale prices account for approximately 33%, while transmission and local distribution costs add up to around 41%. Wholesale prices peaked at $189 per megawatt hour (MWh) in 2022 but dropped to $104 in 2025. While wholesale prices are expected to remain below $100 per MWh for the next few years, analysis suggests they will rise by 2050 – exceeding $120 per MWh in all scenarios, with nuclear power contributing to the highest costs.
The report highlights ongoing cost reductions in solar and battery technologies, which are enhancing Australia's energy resilience. Despite these findings, the CSIRO analysis notes that policy decisions on net zero targets remain a contentious issue, with significant implications for Australian consumers and industry alike.