The UK is expected to experience a wetter and warmer-than-normal autumn, according to the latest forecasts from the Met Office. This weather pattern is largely driven by a strengthening El Niño, a climate phenomenon predicted to be the strongest in living memory.
The forecast suggests an increased likelihood of stormy conditions later in the season, with a higher chance of wet and windy weather, particularly from November. Met Office Chief Meteorologist Ian Lisk noted that these conditions are consistent with the historical influence of El Niño events.
While the potential for wetter weather could aid drought recovery in some areas, it also carries an increased risk of flooding. The Environment Agency's National Drought Group stated on Thursday that drought recovery is a lengthy process, requiring reservoirs, rivers, and groundwater supplies to return to normal levels.
Autumn is also likely to be warmer than usual, following a summer that was provisionally declared the hottest on record. This is attributed to an already warming climate and unusually high sea temperatures around the UK, which have risen up to 5C above normal in some areas.