US scientists have sounded the alarm as El Niño officially begins its cycle, potentially bringing record-breaking global temperatures to the fore. This comes at a time when decades of human-induced climate change are already driving up temperatures worldwide.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has confirmed that El Niño conditions have started to intensify over the remainder of 2026, raising concerns that 2027 could become the warmest year ever recorded globally. The phenomenon is characterised by warmer water spreading across the central and eastern tropical Pacific due to weakening or reversing east-to-west winds.
Scientists at NOAA observed sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific exceeding 0.5°C above average, alongside a shift in atmospheric pressure. This has also been confirmed by the Japanese Meteorological Agency. Some areas have seen waters warming to as much as 6°C above average, according to the UN's World Meteorological Organization.
A 'very strong' or 'super' El Niño is defined by ocean surface warming of 2°C or more for an extended period – a rare event that has only occurred a few times since 1950. NOAA estimates a 63% probability that this El Niño will reach such levels, potentially placing it among the most significant events in recorded history.
According to Celeste Saulo, Secretary General of the World Meteorological Organization, an intense El Niño would 'exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean'. The transfer of heat from the ocean to the atmosphere is expected to contribute to record-breaking temperatures, alongside existing global warming trends.
A strong El Niño typically leads to hot, dry conditions in parts of South America, Southeast Asia, and Australia, increasing drought risks and wildfires. It can also weaken the Indian monsoon and contribute to heavier rainfall and flooding risks in the southern US. For the UK, the Met Office suggests that El Niño may increase the chances of a mild start to winter followed by a colder end.
UN Secretary General António Guterres has urged global preparedness, stating that 'El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed.'
The potential for droughts in key agricultural regions is already causing concerns, with food supplies and economies worldwide at risk from disruption to weather patterns.