The upcoming 2026 FIFA World Cup, set to be co-hosted by the United States, Canada, and Mexico, has been the subject of extensive data analysis, with one scientist simulating the tournament an astonishing one million times. The aim of this ambitious project was to forecast potential winners, semi-finalists, and the likelihood of teams progressing through the group stages under the tournament's new, expanded format.
FIFA's decision to increase the number of participating nations from 32 to 48, leading to 12 groups of four teams and a total of 104 matches, represents a significant shift from previous tournaments. These changes were implemented to broaden global participation, maximise revenue, and boost football's popularity in emerging markets. The new structure also introduces an additional knockout round, making the path to the final even more challenging.
Historically, the semi-final spots in the seven 32-team tournaments since 1998 have been largely claimed by a select group of nations. Argentina, the Netherlands, Brazil, Croatia, France, and Germany have all reached the semi-finals multiple times. When including previous winners England, Italy, and Spain, these nine nations have accounted for 78.6% of modern semi-finalists and all 14 finalists. This demonstrates a remarkable level of dominance given the 211 nations ranked by FIFA.
However, the new 48-team format is projected to somewhat dilute this dominance. The simulation study suggests that while Spain (15.8%), France (15.6%), Argentina (15.3%), and England (11.0%) still hold the highest probabilities of lifting the trophy, the estimated proportion of semi-final spots taken by these nine traditional powerhouses drops to 54.2% from the historical 78.6%. Similarly, their chances of producing a finalist are predicted to be 63.6% and a champion 72.6%, both down from 100% historically. Italy's failure to qualify for the tournament also contributes to these shifts.
England, despite being among the top four favourites, has a slightly lower winning probability compared to Spain, France, and Argentina. This is attributed, at least in part, to a recent dip in their rating following a loss to Japan in March. The study highlights that while the new format does reduce the chances of historically strong nations progressing deep into the tournament, the impact isn't as pronounced as some might have anticipated, especially if FIFA had opted for larger group sizes.
For other nations, the chances vary significantly. Australia is given a 67.1% chance of progressing from their group but only a 0.3% chance of winning the tournament. Canada, benefiting from host nation status, has a 78.9% chance of group progression but also a 0.3% chance of winning. New Zealand, conversely, faces an uphill battle with only a 19.5% chance of making it out of their group and virtually no chance of winning.