English councils are forecasting that debts related to special educational needs and disability (SEND) support will reach a record £10bn over the next 18 months. This projection comes despite the government recently clearing over £5bn in historic council SEND debts.
Authorities anticipate re-accruing the £5bn debt figure by April and doubling it by 2028. The rapid growth in demand for SEND support in English schools is cited as the cause, with a surge in applications for Education, Health and Care Plans (EHCPs).
The County Councils Network (CCN), which published these forecasts, stated that the overspending is not due to reckless spending by councils. The CCN has urged ministers to guarantee future SEND debts, warning that some local authorities could face bankruptcy if left to manage these liabilities.
The government acknowledges the SEND system is under strain and expects deficits and EHCP applications to continue rising before reforms are fully implemented. Ministers have agreed to pay 90% of English top-tier councils' SEND debts accumulated up to March 2026, with further details on future debt support to be set out before March 2028.