An extra 2.7 million lives could be saved in the next pandemic if countries share vaccines more equitably, according to a new study. Researchers modelled a hypothetical global flu outbreak and found that distributing vaccines based on population size, rather than purchasing power, could lead to this reduction in deaths.
The modelling, part of a new report from the NUS-Lancet Prime commission, indicates that while global deaths would decrease, high-income countries might see their death toll rise from 2.4 million to 3.9 million under such an approach. The commission also found that fast-tracking vaccine development could cut overall deaths from 58.5 million to 23.9 million.
Helen Clark, former prime minister of New Zealand and co-chair of the commission, stated that cooperation and solidarity save lives, including those of essential first responders. She added that a more equitable approach means fewer global deaths and better protection for those most in need. Boosting confidence in vaccines could also reduce the death toll by an additional 1.9 million.
The commission, established in 2023 by the National University of Singapore and The Lancet, includes 41 experts. Their research in 20 countries highlighted how systemic weaknesses, such as crowded living conditions or lack of identity papers, put communities at greater risk during outbreaks.