Ethiopia on the Brink: Abiy Ahmed's Election Triumph Marred by Rising Conflict Fears and Regional Tensions
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has secured a landslide victory in Ethiopia's general election, with his Prosperity Party retaining an overwhelming parliamentary majority. The party won 438 out of 501 declared seats, paving the way for Abiy to be sworn in for another term in early October. However, this electoral triumph is overshadowed by a deeply fractured political landscape and escalating security challenges across Africa's second most-populous nation.
The poll was marred by accusations of repression, limited opposition participation, and the complete exclusion of the Tigray region - comprising 36 constituencies and an estimated six million inhabitants still recovering from the devastating two-year civil war that concluded in 2022. Fears are growing that fresh hostilities could erupt in Tigray, a region bordering Eritrea.
Beyond Tigray, violent insurgencies persist in the Amhara and Oromia regions. On election day, 143 polling stations were unable to open in these areas due to safety concerns posed by armed groups. Militias such as the Fano in Amhara and the proscribed Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) in Oromia, both advocating for greater autonomy, rejected the election and its outcomes.
The complex internal dynamics are further complicated by rapidly deteriorating relations with neighbouring Eritrea. Despite Abiy Ahmed winning the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for his efforts in ending a long-standing conflict with Eritrea, the two nations now find themselves at odds. Eritrea accuses Ethiopia of harbouring 'imperial ambitions', particularly concerning Abiy's repeated statements about regaining access to a Red Sea port.
Adding to the volatile regional mix is the ongoing civil war in Sudan, which shares borders with both Ethiopia and Eritrea. Multiple reports suggest Addis Ababa has supported the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), one of Sudan's warring factions - an accusation Ethiopia has consistently denied. Conversely, Eritrea and Tigrayan forces have close links to the Sudanese military, fuelling concerns that the area could be on the brink of widespread conflict.
As security experts warn of a volatile regional cocktail, it remains unclear whether Abiy Ahmed is poised to play a peacemaking role. The fragile peace deal signed in November 2022 between his government and the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF) was intended to end their enmity, but both sides have yet to fully implement its terms.