European intelligence officials have indicated the possibility of an imminent Russian test of NATO, with one official suggesting a potential attack could happen in "months, not years." These warnings follow Poland's Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, informing parliament that intelligence assessments suggest Russia might launch drone or missile attacks on NATO territory in the coming months. Tusk stated this could be an effort to demonstrate that "article 5 is more theoretical than practical."
French President Emmanuel Macron supported Tusk's warnings, calling them "sound and well-documented." He convened an emergency meeting in Paris on Friday with party leaders and 2027 presidential candidates to discuss, among other topics, intelligence regarding a growing threat from Russia.
Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech Republic's BIS security service, suggested that a small-scale invasion of NATO territory bordering Russia, along with increased drone activity, could be part of the Kremlin's plans. He mentioned scenarios such as a "limited incursion, false-flag provocations, a massive influence campaign," which could unfold in "months, not years."
However, officials in the three Baltic countries have expressed more caution regarding an invasion or serious escalation. Normunds Mežviets, director general of Latvia's VDD state security service, stated, "We don't see indications of an imminent attack." He acknowledged signs of Moscow preparing for more decisive action in Europe but questioned whether these plans are part of a destabilisation strategy or direct, concrete intentions. Jonatan Vseviov, secretary general of Estonia's foreign ministry, cautioned against "panic on social media" regarding a possible attack.
The Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed rumours of a Russian attack on NATO, stating it "has nothing to do with reality and nothing to do with the intentions of the Russian Federation."