As Europe grapples with rising populism, a seismic shift in voter behaviour has been revealed: nearly a quarter of Europeans are now backing far-right parties. This dramatic surge – more than quadrupling since the mid-1990s – marks a new low-point for liberal democracies, as anti-establishment forces continue to erode mainstream support.
The groundbreaking PopuList survey, conducted by 150 political scientists from 31 countries, found that over 23% of Europeans voted for far-right parties in their nation's most recent general elections. This alarming trend is a significant increase from approximately 10% a decade ago and roughly 5% in 1995, with nearly 30% now voting for anti-establishment parties – a record high.
Matthijs Rooduijn, the study's lead author, points to a disturbing shift: while previously a quarter of Europeans voted for populist parties generally, predominantly from both the far-left and far-right, now a quarter specifically vote for far-right parties – most of which are populist. This surge in support has been particularly evident between 2023 and 2025, with far-right parties achieving historic electoral gains in major European nations.
Notable examples include France's National Rally (RN) increasing its vote share from 19% to 37% in 2024, becoming the largest party in the French parliament, and Germany's Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) doubling its support from 10% to 21% in 2025, securing its position as the country's second-largest party. In the UK, Reform UK saw its vote share rise from 2% in 2019 (when it was known as the Brexit Party) to 14% in 2024.
The far-right populist parties are now integral to ruling coalitions in countries such as Croatia, Czechia, Italy, and Finland, while propping up a right-wing minority government in Sweden. Furthermore, analysis indicates that these parties lead in opinion polls in Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, and the UK.
The researchers attribute this long-term trend – which has recently accelerated – to several key factors. Firstly, voter attitudes towards core far-right issues like immigration have become more influential in determining voting choices. Secondly, far-right parties have undergone a process of normalisation; their growing success contributes to their perception as more 'normal', aided by media coverage and the adoption of some of their ideas by mainstream parties.
Finally, the study highlights the exceptional storytelling abilities of far-right parties, who effectively frame their messages around a 'heroes versus villains' narrative, appealing to emotions such as anger, contempt, pride, and hope by evoking an idealised vision of the past.