An analysis published in Scientific Reports has found that fire weather risk has intensified across southern Europe in recent decades, with the Iberian Peninsula identified as the most severely affected region.
The research, led by Sarah Feron and colleagues, uses meteorological data from the ECMWF's ERA5 reanalysis and NOAA climate records. It shows that droughts and heatwaves are amplifying wildfire risk, and links year-to-year variability in fire danger to large-scale climate patterns including the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
María José Sanz, director of the Basque Center for Climate Change Research, said the results are consistent with global evidence that climate change is driving increasingly extreme wildfires. She noted that the Iberian Peninsula, and Spain in particular, accounted for a high percentage of the area burned in southern Europe during the catastrophic 2025 season and the trends observed so far in 2026.
Jonathan Troncho, Technical Officer at the Pau Costa Foundation, said the study highlights a difference in fire regimes between Atlantic and Mediterranean regions, particularly on the Iberian Peninsula, which calls for differentiated strategies. He added that the intensification of meteorological conditions increases the likelihood that some fires will exceed the capacity of firefighting systems, underscoring the need for a paradigm shift in risk management.
The authors acknowledge limitations including a lack of data harmonisation, reliance on analytical methods, and uncertainty in climate model predictions. The study examines only meteorological variables and does not directly incorporate fuel characteristics such as vegetation quantity, structure or continuity.