The simmering conflict in Gaza has ignited a fresh fault line within the US Democratic Party, as American Jews increasingly find themselves at odds with their peers over Israel's role in the region. This intra-party divide is set to play a pivotal part in this year's crucial midterm elections, where progressive Democrats are leveraging growing anti-war sentiment and declining public favourability towards Israel to challenge the party's moderate wing.
A recent Senate debate in Michigan laid bare these internal tensions. Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive Democratic contender, openly criticised pro-Israel groups like AIPAC for their substantial spending against his campaign, arguing that this influence leads to US involvement in conflicts not in the national interest. In response, moderate Representative Haley Stevens defended her independence, despite benefiting from pro-Israel funding.
A June Associated Press poll revealed a telling shift in American public opinion on Israel: one-third of all US adults, and almost half of Democrats, now believe Israel has committed genocide in Gaza. Moreover, nearly 60% of Democrats feel the US is overly supportive of Israel – a notable increase from 45% in January 2024. This sentiment spans generations, with older Democrats increasingly sharing these views.
Michigan's foreign policy landscape is particularly contentious. AIPAC-affiliated Super PAC, the United Democracy Project, has invested around $11 million to support Stevens and oppose El-Sayed ahead of the 4 August primary. El-Sayed frequently links overseas conflicts to domestic issues, advocating for investment in American families through healthcare, education, and infrastructure rather than substantial military aid abroad.
Despite their significant financial muscle, pro-Israel groups are facing increasing resistance nationwide. Recent primary victories in New York, Colorado, and New Jersey have seen democratic socialists and candidates openly critical of the Gaza war oust long-standing incumbents and establishment-backed candidates. In Illinois, pro-Israel groups' efforts to influence Democratic candidates appear to be faltering.
The midterms are set to expose deeper divisions within the party as progressive Democrats continue to challenge the moderates on their stance towards Israel and its implications for US foreign policy. The outcome of these elections will provide a vital indication of whether American Jews are willing to challenge what they see as an increasingly out-of-step moderate wing on the issue.