German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is facing significant political challenges, with his approval rating having collapsed to the lowest recorded for a chancellor. His centre-right CDU/CSU party is currently trailing the populist-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) by seven percentage points in national polls.
The immediate pressure on Merz is heightened by upcoming regional elections in east Germany. The AfD is polling above 40% in Saxony-Anhalt, which is set to vote on 6 September. Two weeks later, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern will hold its vote, where the AfD is currently ahead on 36%.
Merz's political difficulties follow his decision to push through constitutional changes exempting much defence spending from Germany's debt brake and creating a €500 billion infrastructure fund, shortly after becoming chancellor in 2025. This move, made with the outgoing parliament, represented a significant shift from his 2025 federal election promise of fiscal conservatism.