Goldman Sachs has told clients it expects the Bank of England to hold interest rates at 4.75 per cent when the Monetary Policy Committee meets on 19 December, pushing back against market expectations of a potential cut. The US investment bank’s economists point to stubborn services inflation and robust wage growth as the primary factors keeping the MPC on hold, according to a research note seen by UKPulse Media.
Services inflation, which the BoE watches closely as a gauge of domestic price pressures, remains above 5 per cent, while average weekly earnings excluding bonuses are growing at around 4.8 per cent. Both figures, Goldman argues, are too high for the committee to feel confident that inflation is sustainably returning to its 2 per cent target. ‘We see a hold as the base case,’ the note states, adding that a cut is unlikely until February at the earliest.
The prediction comes as the FTSE 100 dipped 0.3 per cent to 8,287 points in early trading, with rate-sensitive sectors such as housebuilders and real estate investment trusts under mild pressure. Persimmon fell 1.1 per cent and Land Securities dropped 0.8 per cent as traders repriced the probability of near-term monetary easing. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year UK gilt edged up to 4.32 per cent, reflecting reduced expectations of a December cut.
For UK investors and pension holders, a hold decision would mean that bond yields — which move inversely to prices — could stay elevated, boosting returns on fixed-income holdings but increasing the cost of borrowing for companies and the government. Equities, particularly in growth sectors, may face headwinds as higher rates for longer compress valuations. Analysts at Investec noted that ‘the market is currently caught between hopes of easing and the reality of persistent inflation’, adding that volatility in interest rate expectations is likely to continue into the new year.
The BoE cut rates in August and November, bringing the Bank Rate down from 5.25 per cent to 4.75 per cent. However, Goldman’s forecast suggests the pace of easing will slow, with the next move now pencilled in for February 2025. Markets are pricing around 75 basis points of total cuts over the next 12 months, but that could prove optimistic if inflation does not cool as quickly as hoped.