Goldman Sachs has issued a note suggesting that Turkey could soon adopt a policy of faster lira depreciation, a shift that would mark a significant change in the country's approach to managing its beleaguered currency. The investment bank's analysts argue that Turkish authorities may allow the lira to weaken more rapidly as part of a broader economic recalibration to address persistent inflation and current account deficits.
The lira has already depreciated sharply in recent years, losing more than 80% of its value against the US dollar since 2020. Against the British pound, the currency has also fallen dramatically, with one pound now buying over 40 lira. A faster depreciation would likely accelerate this trend, potentially triggering volatility in Turkish financial markets and raising concerns among international investors.
For UK investors, the implications are twofold. Those holding Turkish equities or bonds denominated in lira face immediate currency losses when repatriating returns. Pension funds and asset managers with exposure to emerging market funds that include Turkish assets may also see diminished returns. The MSCI Turkey index has already fallen by roughly 15% year-to-date in dollar terms, reflecting growing unease.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs noted that a faster depreciation could help Turkey narrow its trade deficit by making exports cheaper, but it would also increase the cost of imports, particularly energy and raw materials. “This is a delicate balancing act,” one analyst commented, speaking on condition of anonymity. “If not managed carefully, it could fuel further inflation and erode consumer confidence.”
The move comes against a backdrop of ongoing economic challenges in Turkey, including inflation that, while down from peaks above 80%, remains stubbornly high at around 40%. The Turkish central bank has been under political pressure to keep interest rates low, a policy that has contributed to the lira's persistent weakness. UK investors are advised to monitor currency hedging strategies and diversify exposure to mitigate risk.