Gold's long-term bull market is far from over, according to analysis published by MoneyWeek, which notes the metal has risen more than fifteenfold since the turn of the century. Over the same period, the S&P 500 is 8.5 times higher after including dividends.
The price of gold touched $5,595 in January this year, a 434% gain from its $1,064 low in late 2015. The year 2025 was gold's second-best in modern records with a 65% rise, beaten only by a 126% gain in 1979. Since January, there has been a 29% correction, which the source describes as healthy, adding that it believes the worst is behind and a gradual recovery is underway.
Central banks have been a major source of demand. Their share of reserves held in gold has grown to nearly 30%, and they have added 4,500 tonnes to their holdings. The source attributes this in part to diversification away from US Treasuries, especially after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine saw Russia's reserve holdings frozen.
The recent boost came in August, when US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent announced an intervention in the Japanese yen and then increased purchases of long-dated Treasury bonds two weeks later. The source says the amounts involved were light but the signalling was explosive, and that governments are prepared to intervene as borrowing costs rise.
The source maintains a long-held forecast that the gold price will hit $7,000 by 2030, based on expectations that long-term inflation will shift from 2% to 4%.