The government has revised its strategy to release thousands of offenders in England and Wales early to alleviate prison overcrowding. From October, individuals sentenced for rape, serious child sex, and grooming offences will no longer be eligible for early release.
However, some prisoners not subject to these exclusions could be released after completing a third of their custodial sentence, a reduction from the previous 40% or 50% requirement. Justice Secretary Alex Norris stated that 5,000 prisoners are now expected to be released from October, a decrease from the initial 6,000 due to the new exclusions.
On 3 August, the prison population in England and Wales stood at 86,495, representing 97% of the useable capacity. The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has warned that the prison population is projected to exceed capacity as early as November.
The MoJ projects that the Sentencing Act 2026, which facilitates earlier release, will help keep the prisoner population below the system's capacity, rising to approximately 96,000 by 2032. Without this Act, the prisoner population was projected to reach about 104,000 by 2032.
The Institute for Government (IFG) think tank attributes the rise in the prison population partly to longer sentences. In 2023, the average prison sentence at Crown Courts in England and Wales was over 25% longer than in 2012.