The uneven distribution of Greater Manchester's economic growth has been laid bare in a new report by Oxford Economics, highlighting significant disparities in income growth across different parts of the region. While Manchester city centre continues to thrive, with average disposable income growth outpacing the national average by 0.6 percentage points between 2008 and 2025, areas such as Salford and Bolton have struggled to keep pace, falling behind the country's trend rates by approximately 0.7 percentage points over the same period.
The research suggests that these regional discrepancies are due in part to high levels of economic inactivity, a lack of significant productivity gains outside Manchester city centre, and poor transport connections. A notable concern raised is the sharp increase in long-term sickness across the entire city region, which has risen by almost 25 per cent, contributing to higher rates of people out of work and placing pressure on household incomes.
The report points to a number of factors limiting the spread of Manchester's growth to surrounding areas. These include sluggish income growth outside the centre, which indicates that urban areas remain "too weak, too small, and too poorly connected" to disseminate growth effectively across the entire region. Furthermore, the findings highlight concerns around productivity growth in the city, which, while higher than the UK and London averages since the financial crisis, has been weak by historical standards.
A closer examination of the data reveals that Manchester's average annual productivity growth slowed from 2.1 per cent between 1991 and 2007 to 1.2 per cent each year since. This trend, combined with issues around data reliability for labour market figures from the Office for National Statistics, adds complexity to the assessment of the region's economic health.
The Oxford Economics report sheds light on a concerning reality: that Manchester's growth is not translating into higher earnings or improved incomes for many residents, particularly in areas outside the city centre. The research underscores the need for policymakers and stakeholders to address the regional disparities and develop targeted strategies to boost productivity and promote inclusive economic growth across the entire Greater Manchester region.