The long-awaited mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester is set to throw a spotlight on the nation's current mood and pose critical questions for both the Labour Party and its potential opponents. On July 30th, more than two million eligible voters will head to the polls, making this contest the largest in British history. Even with an expected turnout of around 30%, the votes of over 600,000 individuals will have far-reaching implications, giving a crucial indication of how national politics is shifting.
The stakes are high for Labour's Andy Burnham, who is widely tipped to become Prime Minister. This early test of his leadership comes just ten days into what is expected to be his tenure at Downing Street. The contest is also seen as an opportunity for Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, to build on its recent successes in traditionally Labour strongholds, where they gained 106 councillors and made significant inroads.
Despite Burnham's impressive track record, securing over 60% of the vote in his three mayoral victories since 2017, his absence from the ballot paper and Reform UK's growing influence in the region have created a highly competitive landscape. The role of Greater Manchester Mayor is one of the most powerful outside of London, with control over an annual budget of £3 billion and significant sway over issues such as housing, health, policing, and transport.
The economic performance of the Greater Manchester region has been impressive, with faster growth than any other part of the UK over the past decade. Luke Tryl, executive director of the More in Common thinktank, highlights the significance of this by-election, noting that a Labour loss would pose significant challenges for Burnham's premiership and propel the winning candidate onto the national stage.
While Labour is widely considered the favourite to win, with many analysts and bookmakers backing them, the sheer scale and complexity of this election mean that surprising results are a real possibility. Labour insiders privately anticipate their vote share could be lower than expected, potentially by as much as 10 percentage points compared to Burnham's 63.4% in 2024.
If no single candidate achieves over 50% of the vote, the supplementary voting system will come into play, factoring in second-choice preferences. Labour is generally believed to benefit from this system, as they are likely to be chosen as a second preference by voters from other parties. However, Reform UK may struggle to attract broad secondary support, potentially limiting their chances.
The Green Party is also actively campaigning, seeking to build on its recent successes and demonstrate that these victories were not mere protest votes against the previous Labour leadership. Recent polling has shown Labour with a narrow lead over Reform UK, but within the margin of error.