Plans for Heathrow Airport's expansion, including a controversial third runway, are facing renewed scrutiny following a Department for Transport (DfT) economic paper revealing potential significant job losses across other UK regions. The analysis suggests that airports in England and Wales could lose millions of passengers, with a substantial impact on regional employment.
Specifically, Birmingham Airport is projected to see a reduction of 7.5 million passengers annually by 2050, a decrease economists equate to approximately 9,500 jobs foregone within the airport and its wider supply chain. This figure contributes to an estimated almost 10,000 jobs lost in the West Midlands alone, according to an assessment of the government's own forecasts.
The New Economics Foundation (NEF) further amplified these concerns, stating that jobs created at Heathrow would primarily represent a displacement of employment from around the country. Their analysis of DfT modelling indicates that by 2050, some 15,200 aviation jobs that would otherwise have emerged in the regions, alongside 6,400 jobs at other London and South East airports, would instead be concentrated at Heathrow.
These findings emerge at a critical time, little over a week after Andy Burnham became Prime Minister. While his predecessor's Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, was a strong proponent of the third runway, Prime Minister Burnham has previously expressed concerns about an imbalance in infrastructure spending favouring the South of England, advocating for a rebalancing through initiatives like a 'No 10 North'.
Despite the criticisms, the government insists that the NEF analysis focuses on a limited period and that Heathrow's expansion would deliver nationwide benefits. A DfT spokesperson stated that the analysis does not account for over 60,000 potential local jobs at Heathrow and that up to 40% of the projected £2.6 billion economic boost would be felt outside London and the South East. Heathrow's chief executive, Thomas Woldbye, also highlighted broader economic benefits, including £150 billion in trade, which he claims are not fully captured by traditional economic models.
The debate over Heathrow's expansion continues as MPs are required to approve a national policy statement for the project. The DfT's own peer review of its GDP analysis cautioned against claiming a broad distribution of gains from Heathrow to the regions based on the current modelling, further complicating the political landscape for the project.