The alarm is sounding on a potential historic El Niño event that threatens to persist until spring 2027, according to a stark warning from the US National Weather Service (NWS). The latest analysis reveals an 81% chance of a 'very strong' El Niño developing before the end of this year – one that could rival the largest recorded since 1950.
Forecasters have indicated a near-certainty, with a 97% probability, that these conditions will endure until spring 2027. Climate scientists, including Daniel Swain, note that the current observed conditions are already in record-breaking territory, with El Niño being as strong or stronger than ever seen for this calendar date – a trajectory expected to continue.
El Niño is a natural climate cycle where sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean warm. This warming triggers an atmospheric upset, altering jet streams and shifting precipitation patterns. A 'super El Niño', defined by sea surface temperatures at least 2°C higher than average, has immense power to cause widespread disruption, paving the way for record global heat that layers on top of existing climate crisis impacts.
Historical data provides a glimpse into the potential severity. The super El Niño of 2015 led to severe drought in Ethiopia, water supply shortages in Puerto Rico, and an exceptionally vicious hurricane season in the central-north Pacific. Typically, these cycles are associated with drought and heat across Australia, parts of southern and central Africa, India, and regions of South America, including the Amazon rainforest. Conversely, heavy precipitation could affect the southern US, parts of the Middle East, and south-central Asia.
These forecasts arrive amidst an already exceptionally hot spring and summer globally. Western Europe experienced its hottest June on record, according to the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), with several countries breaking all-time temperature records. The deputy director of C3S, Dr Samantha Burgess, highlighted how profoundly the climate is changing, leading to increasingly intense heatwaves, a persistently warm ocean, and growing risks for people, ecosystems, and infrastructure. The US has also been grappling with punishing heat domes, causing numerous deaths and millions of emergency room visits, with more stifling conditions forecast for the coming weeks across its western and central plains regions, exacerbating fire dangers.