As the world grapples with what economist Mark Carney has described as an era of "global rupture," characterised by a perceived breakdown in international law and the erosion of multilateral organisations, a more optimistic narrative is emerging. Behind the headlines of conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East lies a complex reality where even the most powerful nations face significant constraints.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine, initially predicted to be a swift victory, has instead become a protracted conflict that has seen Ukraine resist despite being significantly outgunned by its neighbour. This stubborn resilience challenges the notion that international law has been entirely disregarded, highlighting that military might alone is not enough to guarantee success.
In the Middle East, the US and Israel's actions against Iran were widely regarded as violations of international law, yet ultimately failed to achieve their goal of regime change. A subsequent memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran implicitly acknowledged that even the strongest parties cannot unilaterally impose their will. The agreement recognised Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz, involved the unfreezing of assets, and granted temporary waivers on oil sanctions.
These developments paint a nuanced picture where international law is not as shattered as it seems. They suggest that even those at the pinnacle of global power can encounter obstacles and fail to achieve their objectives through force alone. For the UK, with its long-standing commitment to international law and multilateralism, these events present both a challenge and an opportunity to reassert its role in upholding global norms.
While Europe, including the UK, has generally stood in solidarity with Ukraine and the principles of international law, its response to legality in the Middle East has been more complicated. Nevertheless, there are signs of a renewed commitment to international norms. One such initiative is a coalition of around 40 countries, led by France and the UK, assembling a taskforce for the Strait of Hormuz. This endeavour, aimed at securing the waterway for shipping, demonstrates Europe's willingness to engage constructively and multilaterally, although its success depends on regional consent.