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Inheritance Tax Receipts Expected to Reach £15 Billion by 2030/31

Inheritance tax receipts are projected to significantly increase, with the Office for Budget Responsibility forecasting a rise to almost £15 billion by 2030/31.

  • Inheritance tax receipts were £8.5 billion in 2025/26.
  • The OBR forecasts IHT receipts to reach almost £15 billion by 2030/31.
  • Unused pensions will fall under IHT scope from April 2027.

Inheritance tax (IHT) receipts are expected to rise substantially, with the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projecting an increase to almost £15 billion by 2030/31. This follows £8.5 billion collected in the 2025/26 tax year.

The OBR attributes this anticipated rise partly to increasing equity and house prices, frozen tax thresholds, and policies from the 2024 Autumn Budget. Notably, unused pensions will become subject to IHT from April 2027.

Clare Moffat, a pensions and tax expert at Royal London, highlighted six common and costly mistakes families make regarding IHT. These include not understanding the implications of cohabiting versus marrying, which can result in unmarried couples potentially missing out on up to £1 million in IHT exemption.

Other errors include not fully utilising lifetime gifting exemptions, failing to keep detailed records of gifts, and neglecting important conversations with family about estate plans. The residence nil-rate band taper, which reduces the allowance for estates worth over £2 million, is also often overlooked. Finally, not considering how IHT on larger gifts will be paid by beneficiaries is another common oversight.

Why this matters: The projected increase in inheritance tax receipts and the expansion of its scope mean more estates could be affected, making effective tax planning crucial for families.

What this means for you: If you are in a long-term relationship but not married or in a civil partnership, you could miss out on significant inheritance tax exemptions. Gifting money during your lifetime, keeping detailed records of these gifts, and discussing your estate plans with family could help manage potential inheritance tax liabilities.

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