Investors had an exciting April and May, when America's S&P 500 index rose 19.5%, but June was quiet with the index losing 1%. The third quarter is likely to be similarly quiet as earnings catch up with the market, and the fourth quarter might be too.
Market analyst Ed Yardeni is still targeting a year-end level of 8,250, representing a forward multiple of 22 on his forecast of $375 of earnings per share in 2027. That forecast is well below the consensus of above $400, but leaves room for continued growth thereafter.
MoneyWeek points to opportunities in investment trusts, where discounts should continue to fall as rising interest meets a net shrinkage of capital. Particularly attractive are private equity, infrastructure and property sub-sectors, with generous discounts and often attractive yields.
Japanese government bonds also look good value, trading on a yield close to 3% for ten years and more than 4% for 30 years. Analyst Charles Gave argues that a structural growth rate of nominal GDP of 2.4% makes these yields attractive.
On oil and gas, the pause in America's Gulf war has led to the oil price plummeting again, but MoneyWeek says this may be bullish for the sector as governments encourage domestic supply and energy self-sufficiency.